In 2022, emissions fell by0.9% in China, the world's largest coal consumer, due to itszero-covid policy and associated lockdowns. According to data from theGlobal Carbon Project, China's emissions fell for the first time since 2016. Inaddition, declines in China's oil, gas and cement consumption contributed toemissions reductions, while coal consumption remained flat.[i]
China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rose 4% in the firstquarter of 2023, reaching a record high for the first three months of the year.Based on official and commercial data, a new analysis by Carbon Brief found therise was driven by economic recovery after China's long-runningzero-covid policy, stimulus measures, and hydropower weakness due tocontinued drought. Looking ahead to the rest of the year, China's emissions arelikely to hit a record high in 2023 and surpass the previous peak in 2021 asthe government focuses on economic growth. However, the medium-term picture isless clear. Following last year's significant increase, more new coal-firedpower capacity was approved in the first quarter of 2023. During the sameperiod, wind and solar capacity additions reached record highs, and nuclearpower also increased.[ii]
Source: Carbon Brief[iii]
Power generation accounted for the largest share of theincrease in emissions. Coal-based power generation increased by 2% fromthe previous year. Coal is China's main energy source and is widely used forheating, power generation and steel production. The country has ramped up coalproduction since last summer when its worst heat wave and drought in decadeshit hydroelectric power, the country's second-largest energy source. Accordingto the National Bureau of Statistics, coal production in 2022 is up 11% from2021. Aiming to boost coal imports, China lifted restrictions on Australiancoal earlier this year, ending more than two years of 'unofficial' bans. Asa result, China's total coal imports in the first quarter rose 96%year-on-year.[iv]
Current emission trends in the wake of the economic impact of the COVID-19pandemic contrast with those seen after the global financial crash in 2008.Energy intensity of GDP is 3.5% lower than in 2019. In 2011, 3 years after the2008 financial crash, the same metric had decreased only by 2%. Energy use in2022 was less carbon-intensive than pre-pandemic, in contrast to the surge seenin the early 2010s. The big green spending component of pandemic stimuluspackages seems to have been successful in securing a lasting impact on reducingemissions growth.[v]From April 2020 to April 2022, governments around the world enacted $1.215billion in clean energy investment support, according to the IEA's governmentenergy spending tracker. This is more than double which was made availablefollowing the 2008 economic crisis.[vi]
Source:IEA
These global trends are reflectedwithin China; high investment in clean energy means that projected economicgrowth is unaffected by carbon reductions which give analysts hope for animminent peak in emissions. The country will also significantly exceed itsinternationally pledged 2030 target, with emissions expected to peak by 2025,according to a Carbon Brief assessment. This means China could achieve evenmore ambitious targets over the next decade without changing its emissionspath. China's international climate commitment (National DeterminedContribution (NDC)) calls for CO2 emissions to peak "by 2030" andreduce the country's carbon intensity, i.e. emissions per unit of GDP. Bothpledges rely on fossil fuel consumption, which is expected to peak and thendecline, rather than China's production capacity, which expanded last year.Alternatively, China could invest in accelerating other elements of the cleanenergy transition, such as green hydrogen, but China's new strategy calls forless than 1% of domestic hydrogen production by 2025. On the other hand, theintroduction of renewable energy is rapidly increasing in China. Goals for 2030include non-fossil fuels reaching "around 25%" of primary energyconsumption and increasing installed capacity of wind and solar to 1,200gigawatts. Renewable energy capacity exceeded 1,000 GW in 2021,quadrupling from 250 GW in 2010, while wind and solar now exceed 300 GW each,with CEC forecasts to reach a maximum of 150 GW by 2022.[vii]
[i] FinancialTimes- Global carbon emissions hit record despite China slowdown
[ii] CarbonBrief- Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions hit Q1 record high after 4% rise inearly 2023
[iii]Ibid
[iv] CNNBusiness- China’s record carbon emissions expected to peak due to clean energypush, report says
[v] IEA-CO2 Emissions in 2022
[vi] IEA-Government energy spending tracker
[vii] CarbonBrief- Why China is set to significantly overachieve its 2030 climate goals
Oscar is a recent graduate with a background in earth science. He is currently studying an MSc focussing on disaster responses, emergency planning and community resilience. His postgraduate research project will assess the link between climate crisis risk perception and attitudes to green energy projects. “Adapting to the climate crisis through the pursuit of net zero requires community engagement and understanding. Zero Carbon Academy’s goals closely align with this approach and I’m excited to have the opportunity to research and communicate a variety of topics relating to our environment and sustainability”.
