As The UK Waits to See Who May Become the Next Prime Minister, the Race for Conservative Leader Sees Division Between the Cost-Of-Living Crisis and the Climate Crisis

The resignation of Boris Johnson has sparked a Conservative party leadership contest that will potentially select the next Prime Minister. This person will lead the UK’s response to both the cost-of-living and climate crises

Published

July 14, 2022

The resignation of a PM whose climate credentials divided opinion

In November of 2021, the UK hosted COP26; this was perhaps the UK government’s most profound moment in leading the global effort to tackle climate change. Boris Johnson, who resigned as leader of the Conservative party on the 7^th of July, described COP26 as “A turning point for humanity”.[i] At the time, Shadow Secretary of State for Climate Change and Net Zero, Ed Miliband, accused the UK Government of “facing both ways” on climate change citing decisions to cut funding for home insulation and controversial plans for a new coal mine in Cumbria.[ii] On this new coal mine, Johnson said that the decision was not his but was instead up to the planning committees.[iii] Converse to Miliband’s opinion of the outgoing Prime Minister, Zac Goldsmith (who served as Minister of State for the Pacific and the International Environment in Johnson’s cabinet) tweeted his thoughts on how the Prime Minister’s resignation may affect UK climate change policy. He wrote, “I don’t know if or when ‘it is over’. But based on everything I know about politicians, the thing that is most likely to be over is UK leadership on climate & nature. Love him or hate him, Boris has done more on this than all his predecessors combined.”.[iv]‍‍

Since the Prime Minister’s resignation, 11 Conservative MPs have announced their ambitions to run for leader of the party and to potentially be the one to prove to Goldsmith that UK leadership on climate and nature is not over.

How big a role will climate action have in the leadership contest?

Business Green reported on the 11^th of July that Zac Goldsmith and Chris Skidmore had co-authored an op-ed in the Daily Telegraph that morning in which they warned the 11 MPs who have announced their leadership ambitions that reneging on climate commitments would be akin to “digging our (the Conservative Party’s) electoral grave”.[v]

The 2019 conservative manifesto, which secured an 80-seat majority, promised the following on climate change, “Reaching Net Zero by 2050 with investment in clean energy solutions and green infrastructure to reduce carbon emissions and pollution.”.[vi] Whilst this promise was made alongside a series of policies that ranged from immigration to Brexit to public services, it is unlikely that the climate action pledges had no bearing on the 2019 electoral success. YouGov polling after the UK hosted COP26 showed that the event may have only increased how much voters value climate commitments.[vii]

Such growth in support and awareness of UK climate policy suggests that continued command of the popular vote in the UK will require sustained ambition on the climate crisis. However, the latest polling from YouGov on electorate priorities shows that the cost-of-living crisis is refocusing public primacy on the economy and away from the environment.[viii] The most recent polling, undertaken on the 30^th of June 2022, asked respondents to choose three issues that were of the highest importance in the UK. 64% of people placed the economy in their top three, with just 24% placing the environment in their top 3.[ix]

A split in approach

Several candidates in the leadership race have made clear their stance when it comes to the nexus between the cost of living and climate crises. Nadim Zahawi, former education minister and current chancellor, spoke on the issue as a Conservative Way Forward event. He said the current £37 billion package to tackle the cost-of-living crisis had not been a success; he spoke of the public reaction saying, “they can’t feel it making their lives easier”.[x] Zahawi’s approach is to remove “green levies” on energy for a period of 2 years, stating that “It is simply not right that families are currently having to see their bills skyrocket and they’re struggling with it and we do nothing”.[xi]

Fellow leadership candidate Suella Braverman shares Zahawi’s opinion that the cost-of-living crisis is the highest priority beyond the climate crisis. Braverman goes further in her criticism of the link between the cost-of-living crisis and net zero; she says, “In order to deal with the energy crisis we need to suspend the all-consuming desire to achieve net zero by 2050. If we keep it up, especially before businesses and families can adjust, our economy will end up with net zero growth.”.[xii]

Disagreeing with these views, George Eustice (who backed Grant Schapps’ bid for the leadership before he dropped out) spoke at the Conservative Environment Network’s summer party. Eustice said that he understands why those that support net zero policies in government feel “apprehensive and anxious” about the potential policy implications of several leadership election candidates.[xiii] Eustice made it clear to his audience that, in his view, net zero was safe as it had become enshrined in law in 2019.[xiv]

Trade minister and current second favourite for the leadership, Penny Mordaunt, has confirmed her commitment to net zero but has indicated that she would reform the approach when it comes to motoring, saying that she will halve value-added tax on motor fuel and reverse the incoming 2030 ban in new sales of fossil fuel-powered cars.[xv]

With the race in its infancy and projected to proceed at an accelerated pace, candidates may change their approach or retire from the race, and as such, much of this discussion is hypothetical. It is, however, important to appreciate how strain on the UK economy may influence green policy in the years to come; and whilst the race will be decided by the conservative membership, even if you don’t have a role in the decision, the importance of staying abreast of where the winds of policy may be going cannot be understated.