The annual UNCC Conference of the Parties (COP) is the biggest climate event of the year, and the forum where major decisions on climate strategy and commitments are made. In what promises to be a finance-centric conference, this year’s event ‘COP29’ is now underway in Baku, Azerbaijan[i]. However, the conference has had a rocky start, with several notable absentees including US President Joe Biden, China’s Xi Jinping, and India’s Narendra Modi. Also absent are key European Union leaders including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz who is dealing with a political crisis at home, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and French President Emmanuel Macron. Instead, EU Council President Charles Michel will represent the bloc during the high-level segment[ii].
The decision taken by EU leaders to miss COP29 will come as a surprise to many and will concern climate-vulnerable nations. The EU had been expected to step-up its climate leadership given the recent US election results, which saw Donald Trump announced as President-elect. Given that the US was pulled out of the Paris Agreement during Donald Trump’s first term, it is thought to be highly likely he will do so again once he is inaugurated in January next year[iii].
As widely reported, the main task for this year’s COP summit relates to climate finance, where it is hoped that consensus will be reached between nations on an annual funding target[iv]. This would see wealthier nations pay to support poorer countries in meeting their emissions targets.
The New Collective Quantified Goal or NCQG[v], is the name given to the proposed annual climate financing target which is supposed to kick in when the current $100 billion pledge expires at the end of this year, as per the Paris Agreement, where governments agreed to set a new climate finance target by 2025.
In terms of the NCQG, developing country groups including the Arab Group and the African Group, have proposed a finance target in the region of $1-1.3 trillion a year[vi]. With this higher figure (compared with the previous $100 billion) in discussion at COP29, wealthy nations insist the money cannot come entirely from their budgets.
While developing countries prefer a target made up largely of public funds from developed countries, wealthy nations are proposing a far more complex effort that would involve reforming the global multilateral lending complex in ways that de-escalate climate-linked financial risks and encourage more private capital.
With big names missing from this year’s COP, are the public losing faith in the climate summit now almost into its third decade? A new study suggests this may well be the case. A recent poll by YouGov revealed that just 9% of Britons say that they are feeling optimistic about COP29. When asked how likely they think it is that the COP29 will result in significant action to tackle climate change, less than one in ten said it was either very likely, or fairly likely. This is compared with almost two thirds (73%) who said it’s fairly unlikely, or very unlikely to result in anything noteworthy[vii].
When asked what role different developments can have when it comes to addressing climate change, meetings of international leaders like COP29 are the least likely of the measures tested to be seen as important: “Eight in ten (78%) say the development of cleaner and more environmentally friendly technologies can play a ‘very big’ or ‘significant’ role in tackling climate change, as do 71% when it comes to companies adopting more environmentally friendly practices; just over half (53%) say the same of conferences like COP29”[viii].
[i] UN Climate Change Conference Baku - November 2024 | UNFCCC
[ii] Scholz Cancels COP29 Trip in Fresh Blow to EU Climate Leadership – BNN Bloomberg
[iii] Why Trump’s 2nd withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will be different - POLITICO
[v] New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance | UNFCCC
[vi] COP29: What is the ‘new collective quantified goal’ on climate finance? - Carbon Brief
[vii] COP29: Britons remain pessimistic of what climate summits can achieve | YouGov
[viii] Ibid
Lauren has extensive experience as an analyst and market researcher in the digital technology and travel sectors. She has a background in researching and forecasting emerging technologies, with a particular passion for the Videogames and eSports industries. She joined the Critical Information Group as Head of Reports and Market Research at GRC World Forums, and leads the content and data research team at the Zero Carbon Academy. “What drew me to the academy is the opportunity to add content and commentary around sustainability across a wealth of industries and sectors.”
