The Covid-19 pandemic had a complex impact on commuting behaviour in the UK, particularly when observed through the lens of decarbonisation. At its heart, the attitude shift garnered by the interaction of Covid and commuting can be understood through the “habit discontinuity hypothesis”.[i] This posits that “context change makes behaviour-relevant information more salient and individuals more attentive and deliberate.”.[ii] The survey generated insights into behaviour change during the pandemic, highlight a conflicted effect upon our commuting; whilst those that were using private cars at the onset of the pandemic expressed a desire to shift towards cycling and walking (both less carbon intensive than driving), respondents that used public transport conveyed an opposite swing towards private cars.[iii] The latter finding was likely driven by the heightened risk level associated with being in an enclosed space such as trains and buses during the pandemic. Regarding the alteration of opinion from private motorist commuters, the conversation returns to context change. In an extended period of concern for personal health in light of a global public health emergency, motivation to rely on walking or cycling for transport was driven by their well-understood salubrious benefits.[iv]
Source: Unsplash
It is not, however, just an adjustment in how we travel to work; the pandemic also engendered a homeworking revolution. Even as the UK continues its “living with Covid” approach, ONS statistics from January 2022 show that 36% of working adults are still working from home at least one day a week.[v] This is down from a 49% peak of working from home observed in June 2020.[vi] Analysis of how working from home affected commuting was undertaken using mobile phone metadata from 23 million devices between February and June 2020.[vii] According to this study, commuter carbon emissions decreased to about 30-38 per cent of pre-lockdown levels during lockdown. Beginning in March 2020, commuter traffic surged by 20–25 per cent, most likely in anticipation of the impending lockdown. Then, right before March 23rd, it fell precipitously as firms got ready for lockdown. The biggest commuter carbon reductions, ranging from 40 to 78 per cent, were observed in May 2020.[viii]
With demonstrable environmental and health benefits identified in the commuting repercussions of Covid, can these positives be held onto as calls to “return to the office” grow?
The UK has perhaps now found itself at the boiling point of a debate between workers, three-quarters of whom in London say they never want to return to the office, and voices from central government that call for a return to the office.[ix] Whichever way the zeitgeist goes, there will be opportunities to hold onto the boons of behavioural change and emission effects that the pandemic stimulated. Firstly were homeworking to remain a fixture of the UK lifestyle, it is easier, at a surface level, to understand how with a decline in commuting, carbon output could be similarly reduced. However, energy use must be considered when digging deeper into the effect of working from home. IEA analysis at the beginning of the pandemic suggested that homeworking could increase household energy use by 20%; despite this, the emissions savings generated by the fall in commuter transport is larger. As such, a net reduction in emissions is expected.[x] It is also important to recognise that trends in the decarbonisation of energy systems in the UK are moving in a promising direction, with monitoring and projections from the CCC (Climate Change Committee) suggesting that carbon intensity of electricity generation falls from 220 gCO2/kWh in 2019 to around 50 gCO2/kWh in 2030, 10 gCO2/kWh in 2035, and 2 gCO2/kWh in 2050.[xi]
Source: Unsplash
Were offices to take back their monopoly on working environments, there are still opportunities to maintain emissions reductions. With 20% of public transport commuters and 10% of private car commuters expressing a willingness to engage more with walking and cycling to work, there is the potential for policy-level and business-level interventions to grasp the fortuity to facilitate uptake.[xii] Decision-makers in the UK are more aware of the many advantages of walking as well as the necessity to change urban surroundings to accommodate changing demographics, such as an ageing population and families who are becoming less and less inclined to migrate to suburban areas. As a result, during the past ten or so years, walkability initiatives have exploded across the nation.[xiii] The three categories that can be broadly distinguished are planning awareness, design innovation, and cultural change. Land use and walking capability are inextricably linked. Mixed-use complexes promote close proximity between residences, places of employment, retail outlets, and recreational spaces, which reduces the demand for private or public transportation.[xiv] Additionally, walkability can be promoted by creating pedestrian-friendly environments, such as uncluttered sidewalks, crossings that follow desired paths, gamified footpaths, etc. Cycling is also an actionable topic with the success of the cycle-to-work scheme laudable (1.6 million commuters enabled to cycle) and the simple steps businesses can take to ensure that their premises have ample space for the safe storage of bicycles.[xv]
Whatever our working environment looks like in the coming months and years, commuting and carbon reduction can be the silver lining in the tempest that the Coronavirus pandemic presented.
[i] Journal of environmental psychology- Context change and travel mode choice: Combining the habit discontinuity and self-activation hypotheses
[ii] Ibid
[iii] Elsevier Public Health Emergency Collection- Changes in commuting behaviours in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK
[iv] Ibid
[v] ONS- Homeworking and spending during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, Great Britain: April 2020 to January 2022
[vi] Ibid
[vii] Decarbon8- Work from home if you can: the carbon impact of reduced commuter journeys in different places in the UK
[viii] Ibid
[ix] The Telegraph- Three out of four Londoners vow never to return to the office full-time
[x] IEA- Working from home can save energy and reduce emissions. But how much?
[xi] CCC- The Sixth Carbon Budget
[xii] Ibid
[xiii] Sustrans- Walkable neighbourhoods: building in the right places to reduce car dependency
[xiv] Ibid
[xv] Department for Transport- Cycling and Walking Investment Strategy Report to Parliament 2022
Oscar is a recent graduate with a background in earth science. He is currently studying an MSc focussing on disaster responses, emergency planning and community resilience. His postgraduate research project will assess the link between climate crisis risk perception and attitudes to green energy projects. “Adapting to the climate crisis through the pursuit of net zero requires community engagement and understanding. Zero Carbon Academy’s goals closely align with this approach and I’m excited to have the opportunity to research and communicate a variety of topics relating to our environment and sustainability”.
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