Final IPCC report released in the build-up to COP28

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has released its final report as part of its current sixth assessment cycle.  The latest synthesis report summarises three previous papers dated August 2021, February 2022 and April 2022, exploring the state of climate science. ZCA previously discussed the April 2022 release, where it was claimed that it was ‘now or never’ if we want to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.

The synthesis report is designed to condense thousands of pages of research and scientific evidence into a format easy to digest by policymakers before they convene at the start of COP28 later this year. The new research again emphasised the importance of ensuring that global emissions peak by 2025 if the Paris Agreement is to be delivered. It offered a final warning that without drastic action, the world faces not only failing to limit global temperature rise to the 1.5 degrees centigrade set out in the Paris Agreement but also limiting it to the higher 2C pathway. Instead, the IPCC argues that current stated policies are likely to result in a 2.8C trajectory even if delivered in full, and at this level, many places will become unliveable. They warn of increasing risks such as coastal flooding, as well as food and water insecurity that would put between 3.3-3.6 billion people at risk from climate change[i]. The news comes as Environment Ministers came together in Copenhagen for the Climate Ministerial, where they have engaged in talks ahead of COP28[ii].

Figure 1: The extent to which current and future generations will experience a hotter and different world depends on choices now and in the near-term

“Observed (1900–2020) and projected (2021–2100) changes in global surface temperature (relative to 1850–1900), which are linked to changes in climate conditions and impacts, illustrate how the climate has already changed and will change along the lifespan of three representative generations (born in 1950, 1980 and 2020). Future projections (2021–2100) of changes in global surface temperature are shown for very low (SSP*1-1.9), low (SSP1-2.6), intermediate (SSP2-4.5), high (SSP3-7.0) and very high (SSP5-8.5) GHG emissions scenarios. Changes in annual global surface temperatures are presented as ‘climate stripes’, with future projections showing the human-caused long-term trends and continuing modulation by natural variability (represented here using observed levels of past natural variability). Colours on the generational icons correspond to the global surface temperature stripes for each year, with segments on future icons differentiating possible future experiences.” Source: IPCC[iii]

*SSP- Shared Socioeconomic Pathway

IPCC calls for deep emissions cuts and proposes a range of solutions- including climate adaptation

The IPCC has called for nations to act now, arguing that there are “multiple, feasible and effective options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to human-caused climate change”[iv]. To support a deep cut in emissions, they propose at least a six-fold increase in finance provided to emissions reduction projects by 2030, with this sourced from both public and private finance. Further, they wish to see a rapid scaling down in the usage of fossil fuels.

IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee said: “Mainstreaming effective and equitable climate action will not only reduce losses and damages for nature and people, it will also provide wider benefits.” He added that the Synthesis Report “underscores the urgency of taking more ambitious action and shows that, if we act now, we can still secure a liveable, sustainable future for all.”[v]

The report notes that for these choices to be effective, they need to utilise the broad range of expertise globally; this includes both scientific knowledge and the knowledge and experience of Indigenous peoples and local communities. They stress that such an approach will facilitate climate-resilient development and allow locally appropriate, socially acceptable solutions.

One of the authors of the report, Christopher Trisos, has been quoted as saying: “The greatest gains in wellbeing could come from prioritising climate risk reduction for low-income and marginalised communities, including people living in informal settlements. Accelerated climate action will only come about if there is a many-fold increase in finance. Insufficient and misaligned finance is holding back progress.”[vi]

Many of the IPCC’s calls to action rest upon “effective and equitable” climate actions, which also help to solve challenges such as food insecurity, water and air pollution, water access and social inequality. It emphasises a need for solutions that can draw down carbon, such as soil restoration and tree planting. Yet, it concludes that, without a rapid scaling-down of fossil fuels, the impact of carbon-reducing solutions will be effectively voided.

“Climate resilient development becomes progressively more challenging with every increment of warming. This is why the choices made in the next few years will play a critical role in deciding our future and that of generations to come.”[vii]

References

[i] IPCC report: Climate scientists call for dramatic increase in funding for deep emissions cuts   - edie

[ii] Copenhagen to host important pre-COP28 climate meeting - The Post – The Post (cphpost.dk)

[iii] IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf

[iv] Urgent climate action can secure a liveable future for all — IPCC

[v] Ibid

[vi] Ibid

[vii] Ibid

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