COPs lead the climate conversation, but what new talking points can be expected at COP27?

The largest annual climate action event will occur in the Egyptian coastal city of Sharm el-Sheikh from 6th November through to 18th November, and attendees will include heads of state, ministers, negotiators, as well as climate activists, mayors, civil society representatives, and CEOs. The 27th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, or COP27, will build on the conclusions of COP26 to produce action on a variety of problems crucial to addressing the climate emergency, from urgently decreasing greenhouse gas emissions, creating resilience, and adapting to the unavoidable impacts of climate change, to fulfilling the obligations to finance climate action in developing countries.[i]

At the previous incarnation of the ‘Conference of the Parties’, days focused on finance, energy, youth & public empowerment, nature, adaptation, loss & damage, gender, science & innovation, transport and cities, regions & built environment.[ii] COP27 has some of the same themes, but others are new or slightly varied; the program covers the following: finance, science, youth & future generations, decarbonisation, adaptation & agriculture, gender, water, ace & civil society, energy, biodiversity and finally, solutions.[iii]

A major outcome of COP26 was the Glasgow Climate Pact aimed at reducing the worst impacts of climate change. The pact included the following:

• Emissions: It was decided that nations would gather the next year to make additional commitments to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, a greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change. This was done in an effort to limit temperature increases to 1.5C, which experts think is necessary to avoid a "climate catastrophe." However, if the current pledges are kept, global warming will only be restricted to roughly 2.4C.
• Coal: The use of coal, which accounts for 40% of yearly CO2 emissions, was explicitly planned to be reduced for the first time at a COP summit. However, following a late intervention by China and India, governments only agreed to a lesser commitment to "phase down" rather than "phase out" coal.
• Developing nations: The pact promised to substantially expand funding to assist underdeveloped nations deal with the effects of climate change and transition to renewable energy. Additionally, a trillion-dollar fund may be established starting in 2025 after wealthy nations' prior commitment to contribute $100 billion (£72 billion) annually by 2020 was broken. A few analysts claimed that the COP26 accord marked the "beginning of a breakthrough," although numerous African and Latin American nations believed that insufficient progress had been made.
• Subsidies for fossil fuels: The elimination of subsidies that artificially lower the price of coal, oil, or natural gas was agreed upon by world leaders. But no precise dates have been determined.[iv]
• A major agreement between China and the US pledging cooperation, a promise to halt deforestation in 100 countries around the world by 2030, a scheme to reduce methane by 30% by 2030 and a promise of $130 trillion from financial institutions to support green technologies such as renewable energy, although this was criticised for the lack of binding commitments.[v]

Source: Reuters

News tracker insights in the build-up to COP27

In the build-up to COP26, the ZCA news tracker was still in its infancy and analysed fewer articles; despite this, sentiment for COP was tracked and can be seen to flat line throughout the event itself at around 0.2 and a range of sentiment was identified in the build-up of -0.03 to 0.71 demonstrate a divided response or could be a result of a smaller pool of articles.

Sentiment & article count related to COP in the lead-up to COP26

Source: ZCA News Tracker

In the build-up to COP27, the ZCA news tracker shows that interest in COP is building, with article counts increasing to up to 35 through October from single digits through September. Sentiment is stable at around 0.1, and developments over the course of the event will be monitored closely to see how COP27 is being perceived.

Sentiment & article count related to COP in the lead-up to COP27

Source: ZCA News Tracker

Looking at the achievements of COP26, the agreements on coal seemed to have made a stir, with the sentiment of articles discussing the most prolific CO₂ source spiking following the event. Sentiment in the lead-up to COP27 has maintained this positivity to a degree, suggesting perhaps that the commitments were sound and action has followed suit.

Sentiment for coal articles

                                      2021                                                                       2022

Source: ZCA News Tracker

In terms of investment in developing economies and backing green technology, finance was also a major facet of COP26 commitments and will remain at the forefront for COP27. The sentiment of articles discussing financial topics following COP26 was very high by December but saw a drop in the immediate aftermath of the event. This may have been related to the criticisms from African and Latin American nations and a lack of concrete commitments from financial institutions. More recently, sentiment for net zero related finance has experienced a trough despite the trend remaining stable between the two COPs at around 0.35. Attributing this could be speculative at this point, but the discussions at COP27 and any related fluctuations may facilitate a better understanding.

Sentiment of financial articles

                                          2021                                                                         2022

Source: ZCA News Tracker

The call for action, not commitments, has been at the heart of the climate conversation of late. This should remain the core as COP27 begins.

Sentiment for solutions and commitments in the lead-up to COP27

                                  Solutions                                                             Commitments

Source: ZCA News Tracker

The ZCA news tracker has shown that sentiment for solutions is far higher than commitments since COP26, and thus COP27 should make sure it facilitates a more practical approach to ensure that action can be taken rather than just be talked about.

References

[i] United Nations- Delivering for people and the planet

[ii] COP26- Presidency program

[iii] COP27- Thematic days

[iv] BBC- COP26: What was agreed at the Glasgow climate conference?

[v] Ibid

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