The official Earth Overshoot Day designates the time when the ecological footprint of humans and our planet’s biocapacity no longer balance each other out. Our ecological footprint is the amount of cropland, fishery, and forest land required to produce everything we use as well as the waste we make. The resources our planet has at its disposal to satiate our consumption needs can replenish each year and are referred to as its biocapacity. According to information gathered by the UN, which is utilised each year by the think tank Global Footprint Network to determine Earth Overshoot Day, since 1971, we have gone from consuming just over 100% of earth’s biocapacity to more recently exceeding our planet’s limits by expending resources that would account for what 1.75 Earths could replenish within a year.[i]
Source: Earth Overshoot Day
Earth Overshoot Day this year was observed on July 28th. This means that the number of resources humanity used this year is 75% greater than what the planet's ecosystems can replenish.[ii] Humanity runs on ecological deficit spending from Earth Overshoot Day till the year's end. The fact that the date is one day earlier than the previous year demonstrates how humanity's annual ecological deficit has widened. Due to resource use cutbacks brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, the date was unusually advanced by 24 days in 2020; however, as this year indicates, this success was only fleeting two years later.[iii] It’s no easy task to determine biocapacity and ecological footprint, but much like the pursuit of net zero, measuring and reporting is a key stage in addressing the problem. Ecological Footprint accounting, which was first developed in the early 1990s, remains the only metric in circulation that can contrast the total amount of human demand on the environment with what the earth can replenish.[iv] National Footprint & Biocapacity Accounts for nations have been kept up to date and published by Global Footprint Network since 2003. Based on figures from the UN, they cover all nations from 1961 to the present.[v]
A nation's overshoot day is the day on which Earth Overshoot Day would occur if everyone in the world consumed as this nation's citizens do. However, there won't be an overshoot day for every nation. A country will only experience an overshoot day if, according to the country overshoot equation, its Ecological Footprint per Person exceeds the global biocapacity per Person (1.6 gha). Nations without an overshoot day are those whose ecological footprints per person are below the world's biocapacity per person (1.6 gha).[vi]
Source: Earth Overshoot Day
Of our planet’s 195 nations, 144 have an overshoot day.[vii]
The majority of businesses do not yet experience changes in their market value, product prices, material costs, cash flows, or risk profiles as a result of interactions with nature.[viii] If so, neither the balance sheet nor the profit and loss statement of the business shows it. They continue to be "externalities," or problems with no repercussions internally. However, potential factors that could result in the internalisation of what is currently a non-entity in the future include an increase in regulatory or legal action, market forces, shifting operational environments, new actions by and relationships with external stakeholders, as well as an intensifying push for transparency or voluntary action by organisations because they understand how important transparency is to their long-term success.[ix] In preparation for what could be a change in the way natural capital is approached from both a consumer and policy level, the natural capital protocol outlines four principles that can guide a natural capital assessment that will make enterprises more resilient to these shifts in attitude.[x]
Natural capital protocol principles
Source: Capitals coalition
Our future is not always determined by the past. Our present choices are what impact us. We can reverse trends in the utilisation of natural resources and raise everyone's standard of living by making prudent forward-thinking decisions. Human potential is infinite, despite the finiteness of our earth. If we use humanity's best assets—foresight, inventiveness, and compassion for one another—we can succeed in the transition to a sustainable, carbon-neutral future. The good news is that this change is not only technologically feasible but also advantageous from an economic standpoint and represents our best opportunity for a positive future. Earth Overshoot Day has outlined five key areas that they call “the power of possibility”.[xi]
Source: Earth Overshoot Day
For humanity to have the food and physical health we need to thrive, fertile land, drinkable water, and clean air are essential. Our planet's ability to support life depends on the health of vibrant natural ecosystems like forests and oceans, which regulate the climate and absorb carbon emissions, among other things.[xii] To continue feeding the world's population, we must develop regenerative agriculture and sustainable fishing techniques that preserve genetic variety, groundwater levels, water cycles, and soil productivity. Regeneration is spreading around the globe, and an increasing number of rewilding projects are underway. Since the ocean now absorbs 30% of our carbon emissions, acidification must also be controlled to maintain a healthy ocean and allow natural carbon sinks to support us in pursuit of net zero.[xiii]
By 2050, it's anticipated that between 70 and 80 per cent of the world's population will reside in cities. Consequently, designing cities to support a green and sustainable future is essential. Buildings that use less energy, integrated zoning, compact cities, and efficient modes of public transportation are a few examples. In particular, city planning can significantly impact how much we rely on cars. Personal mobility accounts for 17% of humanity's carbon footprint; hence it matters.[xiv] These solutions may be innovative, practical from an economic standpoint, and scalable. They help us strengthen our resilience. Before 2050, humanity could be out of overshoot if we shifted the date by six days annually.
Arguably our best opportunity to combat climate change is to decarbonise the economy, which would also significantly improve the relationship between our ecological footprint and the world's renewable resources. Humanity's carbon footprint was almost negligible more than 150 years ago when our ecological footprint was likewise under control.[xv] It is feasible to phase out fossil fuels as our key energy sources, reducing the strain we put on earth’s finite natural resources.[xvi] Recently, it has also acquired notoriety as a crucial tactic to increase nations' energy independence in times of geopolitical unrest. Not least among its advantages is its cost-effectiveness. Even business-differentiating advantages and opportunities result from it.
Concerning food security, malnutrition, and hunger (UN Sustainable Development Goal 2), there are two key problems:
Shifts toward plant-based diets are a growing trend, and food waste prevention measures enter the conversation more frequently; both present an actionable opportunity for us all to begin to affect change from where it is easiest, our own home.
Population is a delicate subject with an ignoble past. The mere mention of it has the potential to turn people off to the sustainability discussion entirely. Conversely, neglecting the population topic does nothing to address one of the key causes of humanity's rising global demand for resources.[xviii] At the very least, beginning the conversation can bring up themes like equality, especially in the context of environmental impact, in that often those with the lowest impact are the most at risk. Understanding that UN climate modelling has to consider future population trends to build scenarios in which the world can reach net zero is important. It demonstrates once again the link between a low ecological footprint and a neutral carbon footprint.
The solutions to our resource overshoot and our pursuit of net zero belong in the same conversation. Ensuring our ecosystem can continue to regulate our climate and that our energy system is sustainable represents a spiral of positive impact for our planet.
[i] World Economic Forum- Earth Overshoot Day. What is it and why do we need it?
[iii] Ibid
[iv] Footprint Data Foundation
[v] Ibid
[vi] Earth Overshoot Day- Country Overshoot Days
[vii] Ibid
[viii] Capitals Coalition- Natural Capital Protocol
[ix] Ibid
[x] Ibid
[xi] World Overshoot Day- Solutions
[xii] World Overshoot Day-Planet
[xiii] Ibid
[xiv] World Overshoot Day- Cities
[xv] World Overshoot Day- Energy
[xvi] Ibid
[xvii] World Overshoot Day- Food
[xviii] World Overshoot Day- Population
Oscar is a recent graduate with a background in earth science. He is currently studying an MSc focussing on disaster responses, emergency planning and community resilience. His postgraduate research project will assess the link between climate crisis risk perception and attitudes to green energy projects. “Adapting to the climate crisis through the pursuit of net zero requires community engagement and understanding. Zero Carbon Academy’s goals closely align with this approach and I’m excited to have the opportunity to research and communicate a variety of topics relating to our environment and sustainability”.
