The ICAO’s long-term goal

196 nations agreed on the 7th of October to a long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) for net-zero aviation emissions by 2050. The resolution, which was reached at the IACO assembly (International Civil Aviation Organisation), held every three years, was hailed by the industry as a "milestone" but derided as a "compromise" by European nations that desired a more ambitious aim.[i] China, supported by Russia and Eritrea, questioned the viability of the objective and stated that wealthy countries should aid developing nations with aviation markets that are expanding more quickly. Some delegates in Montreal dismissed Beijing's failure to support the agreement altogether, but analysts have warned that China's attitude on climate change is crucial since it is expected to surpass the United States as the world's largest aviation market this decade.[ii]

Prior to the ICAO assembly, some of the political tensions between developed and developing nations had been anticipated. Speaking in the week leading up to the general assembly, the Executive Director of the Air Transport Action Group, Haldane Dodd, said that in the resolution put forward to the assembly, “...there will not be any specific goals attached to each state individually, that states will be able to operate at their own speed, but with assistance from other countries to get to net zero by 2050 or thereabouts”. He continued, "but at least we're all flying in the same direction and setting that global policy framework is really important for us," meaning that some nations would not meet their emission objectives until after 2050 but would still work towards the aim.[iii]

The LTAG's foundation will depend on the combined impact of numerous CO2 emissions reduction strategies, such as the quick adoption of cutting-edge aircraft technologies, simplified flying procedures, and greater production and use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). The new ICAO Assistance, Capacity-building and Training for Sustainable Aviation Fuels (ACT-SAF) programme to accelerate the availability and use of SAF was fully supported by the states at the ICAO Assembly, who also emphasised the significance of viable financing and investment support for the achievement of the new CO2 emissions goal. Additionally, they requested a third ICAO Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels be held in 2023.[iv] The 41st ICAO Assembly also saw other significant environmental accomplishments, including the conclusion of the first periodic review of the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). Countries also agreed on updated percentages for the sectoral and individual growth factors to be used in the calculation of offsetting needs starting in 2030. The new CORSIA baseline, defined as 85% of CO2 emissions in 2019, will take effect in 2024. The baseline represents the level to which emissions must be offset; previously, offsets were planned to account for any emissions increase above the average of 2019 and 2020, but the pandemic complicated this by drastically reducing air travel, and so some saw the new baseline as not going far enough.[v]

Source: UN IACO

A landmark day?

It is not a mistake to describe reaction to the new agreement as mixed. US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said:

"It’s time for aviation to move towards net zero carbon emissions by 2050. We’re working with our international partners to make this a reality, and today’s historic agreement is an important step forward."[vi]

In a similarly positive vein, Adina Valean, European Commissioner for Transport, said:

"Having a single, global goal for an international industry like aviation will provide much-needed certainty for the industry, investors and all states involved. "[vii]

Criticism of the agreement is directed primarily at the changes made to the CORSIA baseline. Brussels-based green transport campaign group Transport and Environment have presented an analysis that by 2030, only 22% of total aviation emissions will be offset by CORSIA. They added that the incentives to reduce carbon were not strong enough, saying that only €1.7 would be added to long-haul flights to account for the price of the offsetting. Based on their calculations, even the previously planned 2019/2020 baseline would only have cost an extra €2.4 for a passenger flying from Europe to New York. This underlines Transport and Environment’s case that the LTAG is not a cause for celebration.[viii]

The BBC reported that Jo Dardenne, director of aviation at Transport & Environment, said:

"You shouldn't be fooled by the results of this assembly. This isn't going to solve aviation's problem,"

"The only way we're going to solve it is to stop burning kerosene. The way that you stop burning kerosene is by pricing kerosene more effectively and investing in alternative solutions."[ix]

Whilst the criticism from Transport & Environment is supported by their quantitative analysis and cannot just be ignored, neither can the holistic value of a global agreement. Not only will it mean that, as Haldane Dodd said, states are all “flying in the same direction”, it may also mean that many are flying faster. Calls for a 3^rd convention on Aviation and Alternative Fuels to be held next year are a direct result of the 41^st general assembly, and if indeed the calls are answered, discussions may well go some way to addressing the concerns of the LTAGs critics.

References

[i] International business times- UN Nations Reach Long-term Aviation Climate Goal

[ii] Ibid

[iii] CAPA- Industry warns ICAO has no time to waste to endorse net zero by 2050

[iv] ICAO- States adopt net-zero 2050 global aspirational goal for international flight operations

[v] IATA- CORSIA fact sheet

[vi] Reuters- UN nations reach long-term aviation climate goal

[vii] Ibid

[viii] Transport and Environment- UN body ICAO hails empty goal and cheap offsetting scheme to ‘green’ aviation

[ix] BBC- Climate change: World aviation agrees 'aspirational' net zero plan

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