‍Lack of ambition will see the world fail to meet renewables targets

New research from Ember has found that current national targets are set to lead to global wind capacity more than doubling by 2030. However, whilst a positive step it does however mean that the target of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, as agreed at COP28, will not be achieved. Currently, wind capacity targets sit at 2,157 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, 2.4 times greater than the 901 GW capacity recorded in 2022, yet this will fall short of the required tripling of capacity by 585 GW.  

As the report notes The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the global agreement by 133 countries at COP28 are all aligned in that tripling renewable capacity to 11,000 GW by 2030 is required for a 1.5C pathway. To achieve this a tripling of wind capacity is required, where the IEA Net Zero Roadmap proposes growth from 901 GW in 2022 to 2,742 GW by 2030. Solar and wind are expected to provide over 90% of the growth in renewables capacity from 2022 to 2030.

Regional variation set to grow, with only six countries on track to meet their wind energy targets

Of the 51 countries with forecast data and targets, only six are projected to meet or exceed their 2030 wind target, with 45 countries expected to fall short. Ember’s research finds that the biggest gaps in capacity are set to occur in several major wind markets including the US, India, and the EU, where capacity additions will not meet the levels required to meet 2030 targets. Countries exceeding these targets include China which has ‘dramatically risen’ to become a world leader in wind generation.

The researchers caution that the forecasts are based on current policies, and stress that to reach the tripling goal, ambition along with the pace of additions must be increased through updated policies and incentives. Dr Katye Altieri, electricity analyst at Ember has said: “Governments are lacking ambition on wind, and especially onshore wind. Amid the hype of solar, wind is not getting enough attention, even though it provides cheap electricity and complements solar.”[i]

The report stresses that wind energy has an important role to play in meeting electricity generation needs. Whilst in the global tripling scenario solar contributes more than half of the 11,000 GW of renewables capacity, wind only contributes a quarter. However, wind has a higher capacity factor than solar, meaning 1 GW of wind provides twice as much electricity generation as 1 GW of solar[ii].

The researchers argue that relying solely on the current boom in solar generation to make up for shortfalls in wind will not be sufficient, especially when we consider how well the two generation methods work to provide electricity throughout the day. Wind often peaks in the morning and evening and solar at midday, as well as the seasonal variations where wind peaks in winter and solar in summer.

Policy interventions needed now to push for a tripling of renewables by 2030

Ember finds that global energy targets for 2030 are achievable but current policy falls short of meeting a required tripling in capacity by 2030. To address this, policy interventions are needed now to get installations back on track to meet targets in many countries.

Given the long lead times for wind and the need for permitting, policy and regulatory frameworks are even more important for wind than solar. Therefore, investments in grid and transmission infrastructure, and actions to streamline permitting could signal confidence for increasing ambition on wind. The research finds that the rapid growth of wind capacity in key markets such as China, indicates that with the right combination of policy, regulatory and financial support, rapid and large-scale wind growth can be enabled.

References

[i] Wind targets are achievable but fall short of a tripling | Ember (ember-climate.org)

[ii] Ibid

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