The Covid-19 pandemic created a rebound effect in terms of energy use and emissions, and the implementation of energy efficiency policies has been slower than the IEA initially envisaged. This means that after 2030, the energy sector needs to do more to stay on track with the 2050 target, creating a steeper path.
Two key actions are presented to reduce fossil fuel demand. The first is tripling global installed renewables capacity to 11,000 gigawatts (GW) by 2030. The second is doubling the annual rate of energy intensity improvement by 2030, which will save the energy equivalent of all oil consumption in road transport today.[i]
Both the 2021 and 2023 IEA reports see the importance of an equitable transition to net zero. This focus on equity has led the 2023 NZE (net zero emissions) Scenario to plot higher near-term coal use so that emerging markets and developing countries (which have a greater dependence on coal) have a fairer path to net zero. Higher near-term coal use also takes into account energy security concerns that have arisen due to the war in Ukraine. The 2023 NZE Scenario predicts the share of coal in the total energy supply in 2030 as four percentage points higher than was predicted in the 2021 NZE Scenario.[ii] Coal will still be in decline (along with oil and natural gas), decreasing from 179 exajoules (EJ) in 2022 to 95 EJ in 2030, 50 EJ in 2035, and 15 EJ in 2050.[iii] Therefore, the IEA makes it clear that there is no need for new coal mines or mine extensions.
Since 2021, there has been an increase in the manufacturing capacity and installation of solar photovoltaics (PVs). In 2021, 141.2 GW of new solar PV capacity was installed, and in 2022, an additional 191.4 GW was installed.[iv] By 2030, and until 2050, solar PV will be the world’s largest source of electricity.[v] More solar PV generation means that there is a need for more stationary battery storage so that security of energy supply is maintained. However, despite an increase in solar PVs, the projected combined share of solar PV and wind capacity in the 2023 NZE Scenario is similar to the 2021 NZE Scenario, at about 40% by 2030.[vi] This is because there has been a reduction in the projected wind capacity additions in the 2023 NZE Scenario.
Electric vehicles (EVs) also have a more important role in the 2023 NZE Scenario. EV manufacturing supply chains have been scaled up and sales have increased. 14% of all car sales in 2022 were EVs, compared to just 4% in 2020.[vii]
The IEA states that,
“We now estimate that global manufacturing capacities for solar PV and electric vehicle batteries would be sufficient to meet projected demand in 2030 in the updated NZE Scenario, if announced projects proceed.”[viii]
Wind, hydrogen, and carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) will all be deployed more slowly than was predicted in the 2021 NZE Scenario. This is due to supply chain constraints, delayed scaling up of project pipelines and their infrastructure, and slow progress in developing market frameworks for less mature technologies.
Prior to 2020, falling costs allowed the wind industry to rapidly expand. However, higher costs due to Covid-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, disrupted this. In 2022, the growth in manufacturing capacity of key wind turbine components (nacelles, towers, and blades) was only around 2%.[ix] Nevertheless, wind still plays a key role in the NZE Scenario, along with solar PV and EVs, and therefore, the IEA recommends that additional policy support is needed to help the wind sector overcome its challenges.
[i] IEA- Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5°C Goal in Reach
[ii] Ibid
[iii] Ibid
[iv] IRENA- Renewable Energy and Jobs: Annual Review 2023
[v] IEA- Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5°C Goal in Reach
[vi] Ibid
[vii] IEA- Electric Vehicles
[viii] IEA- Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5°C Goal in Reach
[ix] Ibid
Gemma recently graduated with a degree in International Development. She is currently studying for an MSc in Sustainable Urbanism, which examines urban planning and urban design through a sustainability lens. “I’m passionate about addressing sustainability challenges in a holistic and pragmatic way. Zero Carbon Academy's diverse range of services targets many of the areas that need support if we are to transition to a liveable future. I’m excited to see the impact that the Academy makes.”
%20(1).jpg)
