Designing a path to net zero for the aviation industry

Aviation is responsible for 2-3% of global emissions, equivalent to 100 million homes, and with air traffic expected to double by 2035, ambitious targets will be required to meet the 2050 net zero target.[i] According to pre-pandemic data from Condor Ferries, business travel made up 75% of airline profit, and corporate passengers constitute 12% of all airline passengers.[ii]

Thirty aviation industry leaders, including United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Virgin Atlantic Airways, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, Airbus and Royal Schiphol Group, as well as McKinsey & Company and Deutsche Post DHL Group, have shown their support for Making Net Zero Aviation Possible: An industry-backed, 1.5°C-aligned transition strategy, delivered by the Mission Possible Partnership (MPP) and the Clean Skies for Tomorrow coalition (CST). The report describes the steps that could be taken, such as the ambitious target for the total phase-out of fossil jet fuel for global aviation to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.[iii] The strategy emphasises the requirement to increase the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs), as well as new aircrafts powered by hydrogen and batteries. It also provides information on the recommended $300 billion in yearly investments, particularly in the fuel supply chain, needed to carry out the sector's decarbonisation goals.

At its core, the report’s objectives are 4-fold.

Challenge and opportunity

Around the world, the aviation industry supports 11.3 million direct jobs and 18.1 million indirect jobs. The sector's total economic impact was $961.3 billion, while the supply chain's impact was an additional $816.4 billion. An estimated 4.5 billion individuals travelled by air in 2019 for both leisure and business, connecting people all over the world.[v] Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, global aviation accounted for 2.8 per cent of all anthropogenic CO2 emissions, 1 Gt of CO2 emissions annually, and 12 per cent of emissions from transportation worldwide.  Between 2010 and 2019, aviation emissions increased by nearly a third, from 760 Mt CO2 to 1,020 Mt.   By 2050, aviation may contribute 22% of all greenhouse gas emissions if no mitigation measures are taken.This increase is due to a combination of a reduction in other areas and an increase in global air traffic.

The industry faces particular challenges in its path to decarbonisation. Firstly, the technological requirements of many sustainable solutions in the aviation industry outstrip current capability. Technological readiness levels rank the maturity of innovation with 1 meaning the research is in its infancy, and 9 meaning the technology is operationally deployable.[vii] Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) rank between 5 and 8 on this scale, with hydrogen and battery aircraft ranking between 1 and 5.[viii] Promisingly though, HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) use for airline fuel have already reached a TRL of 9.[ix] Further to technological immaturity, SAFs also face the challenge of slow-moving construction. It typically takes between five to six years to build new SAF production units (and related resource supply chains, such as for biomass transport). With 2030 only eight years away, to fulfil 2030 commitments, new SAF facilities and the upstream infrastructure they require (renewable power generation, hydrogen production, CO2 capture, and supply of sustainable biomass) must be planned
within the next two to three years.[x]

Another difficulty is that aviation is an international industry: International flights account for 60% of passenger aviation emissions. Since national projects for international flights run the risk of certain market distortion effects and carbon leakage, it remains challenging to get them up and running. For instance, stopover flights might be rerouted from intermediate airports in nations with carbon pricing schemes to nations without such regulations.[xi] When compared to other markets that do not have any cost-adding sustainability regulations in place, this could result in the national aviation industry having an economic disadvantage. However, such competitive market distortion effects might be lessened by policymakers taking corrective action (as detailed, for instance, in the ReFuelEU Aviation policy proposal from the European Commission).

In addressing the technology and time gaps in sustainable solutions, the MPP report suggests an up-front annual investment of $175 billion over the next three decades.[xii] This figure represents an average annual requirement and “kick-off” costs of between $38 billion and $49 billion, with larger investment following in the 2040s.[xiii] Addressing technological gaps using a multisectoral approach also aims to increase the pace of transition, with MPP describing it as breaking free from “silos” and allowing progression in carbon capture in industry to assist in the pursuit of a scaled-up SAF supply chain.[xiv]

Uniting national approaches to deal with the international challenge of aviation is an issue for policymakers to address to ensure a multilateral approach. Progress from the EU in ensuring that SAFs live up to their name in sustainability are an example of how political decision-makers can remove grey areas from approaches to net zero. Recently this has been the case as the ReFuelEU policy was ratified to clarify the requirements of SAFs and cut out unsustainable feedstocks linked to deforestation.[xv]

Ambition should not be disparaged, but if the challenges facing the aviation industry in its path to net zero prove insurmountable, would you consider flying less? If time is needed to achieve the technology required to decarbonise air travel, then can that time be earnt by changing our own behaviour?

References

[i] MPP- Clean Skies for tomorrow

[ii] Condor Ferries- Business Travel Statistics 2020

[iii] RMI- Mission Possible Partnership Unveils How Three Of The Most Carbon Intensive Industries Can Reach Net Zero By 2050 And Cut Emissions In The Next Decade

[iv] MPP- Making Net Zero Aviation Possible: An industry backed, 1.5℃-aligned transition strategy

[v] Ibid

[vi] Ibid

[vii] The Innovation Journal: The Public Sector Innovation Journal- From NASA to EU: the evolution of the TRL scale in Public Sector Innovation

[viii] Ibid

[ix] Ibid

[x] Ibid

[xi] Clean Skies for Tomorrow Initiative-Clean Skies for Tomorrow: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Policy Toolkit

[xii] Ibid

[xiii] Ibid

[xiv] MPP- Global Strategy for Net-Zero Aviation Backed by Industry Leaders

[xv] Travel Tomorrow- MEPs ensure SAF is truly sustainable by banning the use of controversial biofuel feedstocks

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